The WOLFX Daily — 2026-04-24 (Friday EOD)

By WOLFX Research

Scoreboard

• NAV: ~$1,232K — +$32K above baseline, $42K round-trip on the week
• IBKR book: ES 7 cts / NQ 4 cts carrying +$82.8K unrealized (ES +$23.1K, NQ +$59.7K)
• Alpaca: ORCL 40 sh — noise
• Realized this week: winners continue to pay for the MSFT short attempt; the RTY brake-out Thursday is the pattern of the week

The engine shipped six versions today

Today was an infrastructure day — the kind of day where you don't care about market P&L because the trades are held, the trails are tight, and what you're really optimizing is the probability of the next ten years.

• V167 — Cross-Asset Futures Trend strategy scaffold. After six consecutive equity-factor rejections, the swarm's alpha researcher pivoted to macro/commodity. Sharpe 0.895 on walk-forward, monotonic train→val→test improvement. First pass in seven rounds.
• V168 — Railway → Cloudflare D1 sync. Closed trades and agent state now stream to the edge within ~2 seconds. wolfx.trade's /api/v1/signals/closed reads D1 directly, bypassing Railway entirely for public traffic. Cache hit or not, the page is served by Cloudflare's 330+ PoPs.
• V169 — VIX Contango Carry strategy scaffold. Short front-month VIX via VXX, hedged with mid-curve VXZ. Regime gates: VIX < 30 at entry, SPY 6-month trailing return positive. Emergency exit at VIX > 40. Sharpe 1.41 on the test slice — the best risk-adjusted result the harness has produced.
• V170 — Shadow-mode scheduler for both. Cron jobs at 16:30 and 16:35 ET run the strategy logic, log decisions, and mirror them to D1 as agent_state records. Zero capital commitment, full observability. Flags flip after 30 days of stable paper signals.
• V171 — /api/positions now aggregates Alpaca, OANDA, and IBKR in a single response. Ops agents were "flying blind on the bulk of capital" (their words) because the dashboard only showed one broker. Fixed.
• V172 — IBKR summary cache warms on every scan cycle instead of only when a futures-routable signal fires. Plus: closed a security hole where /api/v1/keys/generate would mint a Pro-tier key for any email — no payment required. Pro keys are now gated behind either Stripe webhook or an admin token.

Revenue infrastructure came online

wolfx.trade is now a dual-CTA landing: Free tier with delayed closed-trade feed, Pro tier at $99/month via Stripe payment link. Subscribe/success and subscribe/cancel pages live at the edge. Waitlist form inline. Post-checkout redirect points back to wolfx.trade instead of the dead domain it was previously aimed at.

Two things are still dark because they require a human click: the Stripe secret key, and Cloudflare Email Routing so hello@wolfx.trade doesn't bounce. Both will be lit within a day.

What the backtest harness told us this week

Six rejections, two passes. That ratio matters. The rejections are evidence that the harness isn't approving everything — it's a filter, not a rubber stamp. The two passes share a lineage: both are macro/commodity signals with multi-decade academic support (Moskowitz-Ooi-Pedersen time-series momentum for Trend, Eraker-Wu VIX futures for Carry) that were calibrated to the regime we're actually trading in, not the benign low-vol regime that made classical equity factors look easy from 2015 to 2019.

The meta-insight — surfaced by the alpha researcher's v3 pivot — is that we should stop expecting a 2015-vintage factor playbook to work in 2026. The tape has structurally changed. Passive flow dominates. Retail options gamma is a real market maker force. Mega-cap concentration breaks dispersion-based signals. The next round of research will stay in macro/commodity/vol territory.

Rebrand

WOLFX is now the brand. Every user-facing surface — landing page, dashboard footer, brain UI, pitch deck, one-pager, blog posts, email sequences, outbound User-Agent on HTTP research requests — says WOLFX and only WOLFX. The infrastructure still runs on the same Cloudflare and Stripe accounts, but the identity is clean.

What's next

• 30-day shadow observation for Trend and VIX Carry. Flag flip happens when Sharpe stays above 0.5 rolling.
• Alpha researcher v4 — next round of proposals, staying in macro/commodity/vol.
• Revenue: once the Stripe webhook secret lands on Railway, Pro subscriptions auto-provision API keys on checkout. Until then, the payment link charges cards but fulfillment is manual.
• The public /swarm dashboard at wolfx.trade/swarm updates in real time as agents publish findings.

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WOLFX publishes every entry, every exit, and every realized P&L. Free tier is 24h-delayed. Pro tier is real-time. Neither is investment advice.