By WOLFX Research
Combined NAV crossed back above the $1.2M baseline this morning at $1,209,530 — +$9,530 above, the first sustained cross since the IBKR-blind weekend. The driver is the IBKR futures book: ES + NQ overnight unrealized jumped from $44K Tuesday close to +$66,378 at the cash open. ES and NQ both rallied premarket on what looks like a tech-led bid; we'll see whether it holds intraday.
| Tuesday close | Wednesday open | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpaca | $85,330 | $84,303 | -$1,027 |
| OANDA | ~$96K | ~$96K | flat |
| IBKR | $1,007K (u$44K) | $1,029K (u$66K) | +$22,000 |
| Combined | $1,189K | $1,210K | +$20,500 |
Realised P&L year-to-date sits at +$2,976 across 74 closed trades. The combined-NAV lift this morning is unrealized — futures gains on existing ES + NQ positions, not freshly booked profit. If the rally holds into close, today's mark-to-market is the strongest daily print this month.
After Dave came back online Tuesday, six concrete code milestones landed:
WOLFX_*_ENABLED=1 flips on the next cron fire. Symmetric demote: if Sharpe drops below 0.30 OR 2-week DD breaches -3%, flag flips off. Defensive asymmetry.queue_open (drains on the position-management cycle to stay in the IB event-loop thread)./track-record — public page at wolfx.trade/track-record showing every closed trade with full P&L detail, by strategy, including the bleeders. No cherry-picking.Three rounds ran since Tuesday morning:
| Round | Strategy | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Speculator Crowding (1w / 2w hold) | NO-GO |
| 17b | Speculator Crowding (4w / 6w / 8w hold retest) | PERMANENT NO-GO |
| 18 | HY-OAS Put Credit Spreads | NO-GO formal · R18b reversible |
| 19 | Intraday VWAP Breakout | PASS — guarded |
Round 17b deserves a note: I had hypothesized the Round 17 1-2 week hold was too fast and the original Boons-Prado RFS 2024 documented reversion at 4-8 weeks. The agent retested at 4w / 6w / 8w. Every test-slice Sharpe came back negative (-0.37 / -0.79 / -0.39). My hypothesis was wrong, the data said so, and the strategy is on the permanent shelf — five horizons all rejected.
Round 18 is a different shape entirely. Formal NO-GO at Black-Scholes-on-realized-vol pricing, but the agent's sensitivity test under defensible IV-over-RV pricing (Bakshi-Kapadia 2003, Israelov 2017) flips all five gates to pass: Sharpe 0.63, PF 1.30, full-window 0.31. The "failure" is a modeling artifact — BS-on-RV erases the very variance-risk premium the strategy harvests by construction. This goes to R18b shelf — reversible with $99 of options-chain data procurement (OptionAlpha or Polygon).
Yesterday's V174 cron fired at 15:48 ET and recorded an enter=True shadow signal (5d intraday return -0.01 %, just barely oversold). The V174 Tuesday trade (entry $715.17 → exit $711.82 = -0.097 %) plus Wednesday morning's exit at the open marks the second trade in the overnight_drift shadow series. V179b auto-promote ran at 16:45 and correctly held all three strategies at HOLD_OFF — only 2 trades vs the 20 needed for promotion eligibility.
VIX Carry's signal yesterday was direction=open, contango +95.87 %, regime gates passed. Combined with Monday's open signal, we have two consecutive open-position decisions. The V183 MTM module now correctly walks these chronologically and computes mark-to-market against current VXX/VXZ prices — the position is currently open and being marked.
Trend's first rebalance is tomorrow (April 30 — last trading day of April). The V174 cron in the trend slot will compute signed positions for ES, NQ, RTY, YM, 6E, 6J using 12-1 skip-month momentum and record them. Flag is still off — these are shadow signals only, V179b promotes to live execution after 3 monthly cycles.
The four shadow strategies are not earning money yet — they are accumulating data toward the autonomous-promotion gate. The realised P&L on the books continues to come from sniper_mean_reversion (PF 3.05 across 48 trades, +$3,677 realised). That's the single live alpha stream paying the lights right now. factor_trend and factor_breakout remain disabled at the code level — their -$840 and -$151 are locked-in historical losses, not active drawdowns.
Pro tier infrastructure ships ready: Stripe restricted key + 5-minute polling fulfillment (V176) means whenever the first $99/month subscriber checks out via the live payment link, an API key auto-provisions inside 5 minutes. No webhook secret, no shared signing key, no manual provisioning.
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WOLFX publishes every signal and every realised fill. Past performance, including walk-forward backtest performance, is not predictive of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.